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모든 것에는 양면성이 있읍니다.
특히, 우리가 가명으로 글들을 올릴때에는 더욱 더 조심해야 하는데 왜냐하면, 첫째로 글들의 내용에 대한 책임소재가 없고, 내가 원하는 방향으로 DATA를 인용하며 내가 원하는 방향으로 구독자들을 오도할 수 있읍니다. 3~4년 전에 John R. Talbott, CPA 가 쓴 "The coming CRASH to the Housing Market"을 읽어보면 2년 안에 집값이 폭락할거라 하였는데 지금까지도 여기 Bay Area지역에는 아직도 집값이 오르고 있는 지역이 많이 있지요.
아래글을 보면 "새집 세일즈가 4.6%오른 반면에 가격은 지난달에 비해 4.3% 떨어졌더군요"라고 했는데 지난 금요일 SF Chronicle 기사를 보면 내용이 정반대네요.
오도하지 맙시다.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/06/22/BUGG3JHVUR102.DTL&hw=Sales+are+fewer+but+prices+are+up&sn=003&sc=859
Another month, another home sales decline coupled with a barely eked out price record.
The Bay Area real estate market sustained its steady deceleration in May, with a 20 percent drop in the number of transactions while the median price of a single-family home edged to a high of $671,000, according to real estate information firm DataQuick.
It was the 14th month in a row home sales declined on a year-over-year basis, signaling a market transitioning to a far less hyperactive state than one year ago, when lower interest rates and frantic buyers translated into multiple offers on even modest houses and lotteries for homes in new subdivisions.
The annual appreciation rate of 6.5 percent last month marked the lowest increase since 5.5 percent in June 2003. Early in 2005, homes values were jumping by more than 20 percent.
In several counties, median prices in certain categories dipped compared with May 2005. For example, the price for a single-family home in San Francisco fell nearly 2 percent, from $840,000 to $825,000.
"The market will flatten out," said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage, "But how the rest of the cycle plays out will depend on different variables we can't predict -- inflation, interest rates, how the economy deals with the slower housing market, how much builders keep building, as well as how much existing home inventory continues to build."
Last week, the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.63 percent, compared with 5.63 percent last year, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac. The average for a one-year Treasury-indexed adjustable rate mortgage was 5.66 percent, versus 4.25 percent last year.
DataQuick's monthly reports are based on filings with county recorders' offices and reflect sales initiated 30 to 60 days earlier.
A total of 9,064 homes changed hands in the nine-county region last month, down 20 percent from last May's tally and the slowest May since 2001. The median price for a condo in the area hit $494,000, down from April's $502,000 but up from $465,000 a year ago.
As the year wears on, many observers predict prices will soften further.
In Santa Clara County, there are about 4,100 houses and condos on the market, compared with just over 2,400 one year ago -- suggesting some sellers may be overpricing their homes and buyers remain far more cautious.
As fewer shoppers vie for a larger supply of homes, prices on many properties are being slashed.
D.J. Grubb, president of the Grubb Co. in Oakland, said midrange properties between $800,000 and $1.2 million are selling much more slowly. And it is much more common for homes that garner multiple offers to sell just at -- or even below -- the asking prices.
"Properties can't be priced well as related to" comparables, Grubb said. "They have to be priced against what they're competing against."
Builders find they must alter their marketing strategies as well. Many are offering discounts of $50,000 to $100,000 and free upgrades such as granite countertops. Layne Marceau, chairman of the California Industry Building Association, told attendees at a San Francisco builders show Wednesday that developers went on a building binge between 2003 and 2005, spurred on by what seemed like a bottomless pool of buyers.
"We got a little ahead of ourselves and now we're dealing with that standing inventory," Marceau said. "It's like the auto industry, which has a lot of 2006 (models) on the lot and they're trying to clear them for the 2007s."
With interest rates higher than they were a year ago and construction costs and other land fees zooming, builders in California expect to construct about 180,000 units this year, down from roughly 210,000 in 2005.
Still, many economists don't expect the construction slowdown to trigger a recession -- which would, in turn, pressure the housing market -- in part because other pistons of the economy are firing up. Alan Nevin, chief economist at the state building trade group, estimates the state will add about 200,000 jobs this year.
"Demand for housing has not changed -- it's still stable," Nevin said. "It's just taking a breather."
Stephen Levy, economist at Palo Alto's Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, suspects the breather could be longer and more pronounced than many suspect -- particularly for those recent home buyers who financed their purchases with exotic loans.
A recent study by San Francisco's LoanPerformance found nearly three-quarters of mortgages taken out last year were adjustable-rate loans that allowed borrowers to delay payment of principal, and in some cases, interest. Such loans can leave borrowers vulnerable to payment shock when the fixed-interest rate period ends and principal payments come due.
"Ordinary folks with good incomes and mortgages are going to be OK," Levy said. "It's the people who took out these risky loans who may get into trouble. If they have to sell and there aren't any buyers, that could be a dicey market. We'll see."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
동의?님이 2006-06-26 08:04:58에 쓰신글
>저 역시 주택 실 소유자입니다.
>이곳에 와서 대부분의 모든글을 다 읽습니다. 그리고 마켓이 어떻게 돌아가나 직접 인터넷으로 리써치도 해보고요. 글쓰신분만 아니라 저를 포함한 많은 사람들이 향후 집값에 대해 불안해 합니다. 그리고 전체적으로 집값이 떨어지고 있는것은 부정할수 없는 사실이구요. 오늘 나온 데이타도 새집 세일즈가 4.6%오른 반면에 가격은 지난달에 비해 4.3% 떨어졌더군요. 저는 사실 특종님께 감사합니다. 제가 올리신 데이타들을 인터넷에서 찾아봤는데 전부 사실입니다. 불안해 한다고 집값이 오르거나 내리지는 않습니다. 하지만 돌아가는 사실을 알아야 적어도 위기의 사항에 대처는 할수 있겠지요.
>지나가다님 실리콘밸리 오래 사신것 같은데 2000년도 여름을 기억 하시는지요. 저에게는 최악의 해였습니다. 그이유를 돌이켜 생각해보면 제가 너무 주식에 대해 아는것 없이 남들 돈보는것에 욕심만 가지고 덤볐다 큰코 다쳤지요. 그때 주위에 특종님같은 한분만 계셨더라도 한번쯤 다시생각했었을 텐데 싶네요. 특종님이 쓰시느 글때문에 짒값에 영향이 오리라고는 저도 전혀 생각치 않습니다. 그리고 많은 도움이 되는 글임에 사실입니다. 지나가다 님의 글을 보고 자신이 바라는데로 글을 쓰지않는다고 불평하거나 짜증내는 모습이 조금 우습다는 생각이 드네요.
>
>
>불안혀님이 2006-06-26 07:26:50에 쓰신글
>>나두 지나가다 님의 의견에 동의함니다
>>이곳에 들어와 보니 주택 실 소유자와 집을 사려고하는 모든 사람들이 불안하게 느끼는것은 사실임니다
특히, 우리가 가명으로 글들을 올릴때에는 더욱 더 조심해야 하는데 왜냐하면, 첫째로 글들의 내용에 대한 책임소재가 없고, 내가 원하는 방향으로 DATA를 인용하며 내가 원하는 방향으로 구독자들을 오도할 수 있읍니다. 3~4년 전에 John R. Talbott, CPA 가 쓴 "The coming CRASH to the Housing Market"을 읽어보면 2년 안에 집값이 폭락할거라 하였는데 지금까지도 여기 Bay Area지역에는 아직도 집값이 오르고 있는 지역이 많이 있지요.
아래글을 보면 "새집 세일즈가 4.6%오른 반면에 가격은 지난달에 비해 4.3% 떨어졌더군요"라고 했는데 지난 금요일 SF Chronicle 기사를 보면 내용이 정반대네요.
오도하지 맙시다.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/06/22/BUGG3JHVUR102.DTL&hw=Sales+are+fewer+but+prices+are+up&sn=003&sc=859
Another month, another home sales decline coupled with a barely eked out price record.
The Bay Area real estate market sustained its steady deceleration in May, with a 20 percent drop in the number of transactions while the median price of a single-family home edged to a high of $671,000, according to real estate information firm DataQuick.
It was the 14th month in a row home sales declined on a year-over-year basis, signaling a market transitioning to a far less hyperactive state than one year ago, when lower interest rates and frantic buyers translated into multiple offers on even modest houses and lotteries for homes in new subdivisions.
The annual appreciation rate of 6.5 percent last month marked the lowest increase since 5.5 percent in June 2003. Early in 2005, homes values were jumping by more than 20 percent.
In several counties, median prices in certain categories dipped compared with May 2005. For example, the price for a single-family home in San Francisco fell nearly 2 percent, from $840,000 to $825,000.
"The market will flatten out," said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage, "But how the rest of the cycle plays out will depend on different variables we can't predict -- inflation, interest rates, how the economy deals with the slower housing market, how much builders keep building, as well as how much existing home inventory continues to build."
Last week, the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.63 percent, compared with 5.63 percent last year, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac. The average for a one-year Treasury-indexed adjustable rate mortgage was 5.66 percent, versus 4.25 percent last year.
DataQuick's monthly reports are based on filings with county recorders' offices and reflect sales initiated 30 to 60 days earlier.
A total of 9,064 homes changed hands in the nine-county region last month, down 20 percent from last May's tally and the slowest May since 2001. The median price for a condo in the area hit $494,000, down from April's $502,000 but up from $465,000 a year ago.
As the year wears on, many observers predict prices will soften further.
In Santa Clara County, there are about 4,100 houses and condos on the market, compared with just over 2,400 one year ago -- suggesting some sellers may be overpricing their homes and buyers remain far more cautious.
As fewer shoppers vie for a larger supply of homes, prices on many properties are being slashed.
D.J. Grubb, president of the Grubb Co. in Oakland, said midrange properties between $800,000 and $1.2 million are selling much more slowly. And it is much more common for homes that garner multiple offers to sell just at -- or even below -- the asking prices.
"Properties can't be priced well as related to" comparables, Grubb said. "They have to be priced against what they're competing against."
Builders find they must alter their marketing strategies as well. Many are offering discounts of $50,000 to $100,000 and free upgrades such as granite countertops. Layne Marceau, chairman of the California Industry Building Association, told attendees at a San Francisco builders show Wednesday that developers went on a building binge between 2003 and 2005, spurred on by what seemed like a bottomless pool of buyers.
"We got a little ahead of ourselves and now we're dealing with that standing inventory," Marceau said. "It's like the auto industry, which has a lot of 2006 (models) on the lot and they're trying to clear them for the 2007s."
With interest rates higher than they were a year ago and construction costs and other land fees zooming, builders in California expect to construct about 180,000 units this year, down from roughly 210,000 in 2005.
Still, many economists don't expect the construction slowdown to trigger a recession -- which would, in turn, pressure the housing market -- in part because other pistons of the economy are firing up. Alan Nevin, chief economist at the state building trade group, estimates the state will add about 200,000 jobs this year.
"Demand for housing has not changed -- it's still stable," Nevin said. "It's just taking a breather."
Stephen Levy, economist at Palo Alto's Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, suspects the breather could be longer and more pronounced than many suspect -- particularly for those recent home buyers who financed their purchases with exotic loans.
A recent study by San Francisco's LoanPerformance found nearly three-quarters of mortgages taken out last year were adjustable-rate loans that allowed borrowers to delay payment of principal, and in some cases, interest. Such loans can leave borrowers vulnerable to payment shock when the fixed-interest rate period ends and principal payments come due.
"Ordinary folks with good incomes and mortgages are going to be OK," Levy said. "It's the people who took out these risky loans who may get into trouble. If they have to sell and there aren't any buyers, that could be a dicey market. We'll see."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
동의?님이 2006-06-26 08:04:58에 쓰신글
>저 역시 주택 실 소유자입니다.
>이곳에 와서 대부분의 모든글을 다 읽습니다. 그리고 마켓이 어떻게 돌아가나 직접 인터넷으로 리써치도 해보고요. 글쓰신분만 아니라 저를 포함한 많은 사람들이 향후 집값에 대해 불안해 합니다. 그리고 전체적으로 집값이 떨어지고 있는것은 부정할수 없는 사실이구요. 오늘 나온 데이타도 새집 세일즈가 4.6%오른 반면에 가격은 지난달에 비해 4.3% 떨어졌더군요. 저는 사실 특종님께 감사합니다. 제가 올리신 데이타들을 인터넷에서 찾아봤는데 전부 사실입니다. 불안해 한다고 집값이 오르거나 내리지는 않습니다. 하지만 돌아가는 사실을 알아야 적어도 위기의 사항에 대처는 할수 있겠지요.
>지나가다님 실리콘밸리 오래 사신것 같은데 2000년도 여름을 기억 하시는지요. 저에게는 최악의 해였습니다. 그이유를 돌이켜 생각해보면 제가 너무 주식에 대해 아는것 없이 남들 돈보는것에 욕심만 가지고 덤볐다 큰코 다쳤지요. 그때 주위에 특종님같은 한분만 계셨더라도 한번쯤 다시생각했었을 텐데 싶네요. 특종님이 쓰시느 글때문에 짒값에 영향이 오리라고는 저도 전혀 생각치 않습니다. 그리고 많은 도움이 되는 글임에 사실입니다. 지나가다 님의 글을 보고 자신이 바라는데로 글을 쓰지않는다고 불평하거나 짜증내는 모습이 조금 우습다는 생각이 드네요.
>
>
>불안혀님이 2006-06-26 07:26:50에 쓰신글
>>나두 지나가다 님의 의견에 동의함니다
>>이곳에 들어와 보니 주택 실 소유자와 집을 사려고하는 모든 사람들이 불안하게 느끼는것은 사실임니다
작성일2006-06-26 10:32
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